It’s a very interesting analysis! Although I don’t think turnout will be that low come the midterms if the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey end up in Democratic victories, it might be a demotivating factor for GOP voters. Do you think you could apply the same methods for analyzing the victories of Mike Zimmer and James Malone who flipped deep red State Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania ?
Yep, turnout will definitely be higher in the midterms, it's often something like 70% of Presidential-level, this was just 32%.
So maybe a midterm electorate in Louisiana would be something like Trump +16 ... but even so, that's 6% worse than what it was in November 2024. A lot of seats around the country would flip, based on that.
It’s a very interesting analysis! Although I don’t think turnout will be that low come the midterms if the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey end up in Democratic victories, it might be a demotivating factor for GOP voters. Do you think you could apply the same methods for analyzing the victories of Mike Zimmer and James Malone who flipped deep red State Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania ?
Yep, turnout will definitely be higher in the midterms, it's often something like 70% of Presidential-level, this was just 32%.
So maybe a midterm electorate in Louisiana would be something like Trump +16 ... but even so, that's 6% worse than what it was in November 2024. A lot of seats around the country would flip, based on that.